August 31st, 2026 by Mike Manazir – (4-5 minutes)
Great leaders identify risk early and act before it becomes crisis
In June of 2007, I received orders from Admiral Bob Willard to take USS Nimitz to Chennai, India. The port visit was important to the President of the United States as he negotiated a commercial nuclear power agreement with the Prime Minister of India. We transited the Strait of Hormuz, turned Nimitz southwest and commenced our transit from the Arabian Gulf across the Indian Ocean to India.
A few days later, we were in the clutches of a seasonal southwest monsoon.
Sixty-foot waves and heavy wind battered the ship. We moved as many aircraft as we could fit inside the hangar bay, lashed down the remainder with extra chains and closed the flight deck. I told the crew, “We’re going to be in the middle of this thing for a while. We’ll get through this.
Stay inside, because if you go overboard, the chances of us picking you up successfully are slim.” They stayed inside.
The Navy uses Optimal Track Ship Routing (OTSR) to guide ships around dangerous weather. OTSR was developed in the wake of Typhoon Cobra which cost Admiral Halsey three destroyers and 790 sailors during World War II. Deviation is highly discouraged and rare. If you do decide to deviate from the routing, you must report it to higher authority.
I was on the bridge watching reports every fifteen minutes. Wind. Waves. Direction.
The bow was rising and falling sixty to eighty feet. Waves were breaking over the starboard bow.
Equipment started breaking loose in the hangar bay.
The recommended track was taking us toward the worst part of the storm. I stood there watching the seas. Reading them. Feeling what the ship was doing. The data mattered, but so did experience. If we turned 90 degrees left, the ride would improve. So I informed the Admiral and turned left.
Then I played with the speed until we were running with the waves at about twenty-six knots.
The ship started heaving instead of pitching violently into the seas. It was still a powerful storm, but the ride smoothed out.
A 1,000-foot aircraft carrier can feel very small in a big sea.
That is risk management. You identify the danger. You assess it honestly. You prepare the ship and the people. You monitor constantly. You communicate clearly. Then, when the plan is no longer protecting the mission, you adjust.
Business risk works the same way.
You cannot eliminate every storm. Markets shift. Customers change. Technology moves.
Regulations tighten. A key person leaves. A supplier fails. A mistake becomes public. Pretending none of that can happen is not optimism. It is negligence. The leader has to keep watch.
Ask what can hurt the mission. Ask what can hurt the people. Ask what can damage trust. Ask what is already showing signs of becoming a larger problem.
Then build the habit of talking about risk before it becomes a crisis. Do not punish the person who sees trouble early. Thank them. That person may have just saved the ship.
Risk management is not fear. It is responsibility.
Lash down what needs to be secured. Keep the team informed. Watch the weather. Trust the data. Trust experience. And when the situation changes, have the courage to change course.
As an aside, when I informed the embarked Admiral of my deviation, he did not agree. He was not happy. He told me I needed to follow OTSR. I stood my ground as it was my risk to accept as Captain of Nimitz. I held course.
Lead to Win Principle
Risk management is seeing danger early, preparing the team, and adjusting before the mission is lost.
The Question
What risk are you sailing toward right now that you might not see, because no one wants to say it out loud?
Next Week: Great leaders understand legal risk and build habits that protect the mission, the people, and the organization.
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Let’s lead to win together,
Mike Manazir
Retired Navy Rear Admiral | Bestselling Author | Keynote Speaker | Executive Coach